These numbers are preliminary based on several factors….
| Name | WNTS | DialIdol | Vote Fair | FB | Total S | Probability | VFTG Model | ||
| Sam Woolf* | 60.5 | 0 | 26 | 23,400 | 865 | 24,265 | 19.15% | 0.167 | 0.074 |
| Alex Preston* | 76.5 | 0 | 13 | 15,700 | 3,193 | 18,893 | 14.91% | 0.219 | 0.071 |
| Jessica Meuse | 69.5 | 0 | 9 | 7,484 | 3,802 | 11,286 | 8.91% | 0.261 | 0.058 |
| Emily Priz | 72.5 | 0 | 5 | 3,848 | 1,412 | 5,260 | 4.15% | 0.271 | 0.054 |
| Majesty Rose | 67 | 0 | 9 | 3,363 | 4,918 | 8,281 | 6.53% | 0.2625 | 0.053 |
| Caleb Johnson* | 71 | 0.015 | 2 | 1,398 | 2,889 | 4,287 | 3.38% | 0.2805 | 0.050 |
| Jena Irene Aschuitto | 59 | 0 | 9.5 | 4,482 | 428 | 4,910 | 3.87% | 0.3845 | 0.049 |
| MK Nobilette** | 61 | 0 | 4.5 | 4,575 | 1,771 | 6,346 | 5.01% | 0.29 | 0.047 |
| Malaya Watson | 46.5 | 0 | 11.5 | 9,987 | 201 | 10,188 | 8.04% | 0.254 | 0.046 |
| CJ Harris* | 53 | 0 | 3 | 3,213 | 9,616 | 12,829 | 10.12% | 0.2775 | 0.040 |
| Kristen O’Connor | 35.5 | 12.8325 | 4 | 3,793 | 2,184 | 5,977 | 4.72% | 0.33 | 0.038 |
| Ben Briley* | 46 | 0 | 2 | 3,313 | 2,227 | 5,540 | 4.37% | 0.3905 | 0.035 |
| Dexter Roberts* | 42.5 | 0 | 4 | 3,456 | 5,210 | 8,666 | 6.84% | 0.3545 | 0.034 |
*Contestant VFTG isn’t supporting
**Contestant that VFTG Moderators Ava Zinn, Michelle Steele, and Kathi Jameson are supporting as a transmale pick.
Names in green are predicted safe. Names in red are the most likely bottom 3. Names inblack are undecided. Any person not in green is not considered safe by the model. The most probable bottom 3 (on IdolAnalytics) is C.J., Ben, and Dexter. However, anybody on the list being in the bottom 3 would not be shocking.
Malaya Watson
Kristen O’Connor
I think the call I’m most suspicious of are that of Malaya Watson and Kristen O’Connor. Nobody really liked Watson’s performance, but her popularity on Votefair and VFTG is considerable, and Votefair is fairly predictive at this early stage in the game. If I were less scrupulous, I would probably nudge her into green when nobody was looking. Possibly, as more people vote in that poll, others will gain at her expense. I will keep monitoring.
I’m quite concerned about Dialidol altogether. The site is barely registering on Caleb, huge on Kristen, and zero for all other contestants. Measuring zero isn’t really measuring. Fortunately, at this early stage the model doesn’t give Dialidol much credit.
IdolAnalytics: Three men as the bottom 3? When Vote for the Girls debuted in April 2010, that would have seemed rare and it has been happening since Season 12 and before then, the women (of whom we vote for filed out at the beginning of the year. In American Idol 12, though, no woman was eliminated until the Top 5 (and this site’s first American Idol victory), though Janelle Arthur did end up in the bottom 3 in the Top 7 round. Has the worm turned? IdolAnalytics.com is not convinced, yet Vote for the Girls is..
With the voting limited to 50 votes per contestant per voting method, I, for one, thought the ladies did fine, but the numbers speak differently and it could mean a big difference from a Painful Loss and a Vote for the Girls Victory.